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As the 2026 tax filing season gets underway, many taxpayers are hearing positive news about potentially larger tax refunds this year. Recent official and expert estimates suggest that many Americans may see refunds around $1,000 higher on average than in previous years. These increases are tied to major changes in federal tax law that affect deductions and credits.
Here’s what you should understand now about potential extra refunds, what’s driving them, and how this could affect your tax return in 2026.
Why Refunds Could Be Higher in 2026
Recent tax law changes — primarily from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and related relief measures — have expanded key tax benefits that affect refunds:
Larger Standard Deduction
The standard deduction has increased significantly, which reduces taxable income for most filers. Lower taxable income often leads to smaller tax bills and larger refunds for people who qualify.
Expanded Child Tax Credit
The Child Tax Credit (CTC) has been increased to a higher amount per child under age 17 and is now indexed for inflation, meaning it can grow over time. Up to a portion of this credit is refundable, potentially boosting refunds for families with qualifying children.
Other Tax Reductions and Credits
Other provisions under the OBBBA — such as deductions for tips, overtime, certain loan interests, and a larger itemized state and local tax deduction — may also reduce federal tax liability and positively affect refunds.
What the “Extra $1,000” Estimate Really Means
Officials and financial analysts have suggested that the average tax refund could be about $1,000 larger in 2026 compared with recent years. This does not mean a guaranteed one-time $1,000 payment, but rather that the typical refund could be higher due to reduced tax liability and enhanced credits:
- Analysts project the average refund could rise to around $4,000+, which may be roughly $1,000 more than last year’s average.
- Lawmakers and treasury statements describe potential refund increases tied to changes in credits, deductions, and tax rates that became effective for 2025 tax returns filed in 2026.
This estimate includes tens of millions of households — but eligibility and refund size will vary depending on income, family size, filing status, and specific credits claimed.
Who Might See Bigger Refunds
Families most likely to benefit include:
- Households with children, especially those claiming the expanded Child Tax Credit — the refundable portion may add up to several hundred dollars per qualifying child.
- Taxpayers who take the standard deduction impacted by the law’s expansion.
- Individuals and couples claiming new or larger deductions available under recent tax law changes.
People with straightforward returns, clean filing histories, and direct deposit set up will likely see refunds sooner and more predictably.
Important Clarifications
While many discussions refer to phrases like “no tax on certain income,” these should be interpreted cautiously. Not all income categories are fully exempt, and tax liability still depends on overall income and filing status. Refund amounts are also highly individualized rather than one-size-fits-all solutions.
It’s also worth noting that while many taxpayers could see bigger refunds, a small segment may not see significant increases if their specific tax situation doesn’t benefit as much from the new provisions.
Tracking Your Refund
Once you file your 2025 tax return — typically between late January and April 15, 2026 — you can track your refund using the IRS’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool. It usually updates within about 24 hours after electronic filing acceptance.
Electronic filing and choosing direct deposit remain the fastest methods to receive refunds.
Final Thoughts
The 2026 tax filing season looks promising for many Americans expecting refunds. Changes in tax law, including larger deductions and expanded credits, could result in refunds that are on average about $1,000 higher than in the past — though results vary widely by individual circumstances. Filing early, ensuring accuracy, and understanding the credits you qualify for will help you make the most of this tax season.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. Tax laws and refund amounts vary by individual and may change. Consult official IRS resources or a qualified tax professional for personalized advice.